SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 53.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Marseille had a probability of 22.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for a Marseille win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Marseille |
53.77% ( 0.13) | 23.54% ( 0.04) | 22.69% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 53.83% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.2% ( -0.33) | 46.8% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.94% ( -0.31) | 69.06% ( 0.31) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.67% ( -0.07) | 17.33% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.3% ( -0.13) | 47.7% ( 0.13) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.12% ( -0.33) | 34.88% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.38% ( -0.35) | 71.62% ( 0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lille | Draw | Marseille |
| 1-0 @ 10.59% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( -0)2-0 @ 9.29% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 5.72% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.43% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.5% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.76% Total : 53.77% | 1-1 @ 11.15% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 5.15% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.53% | 0-1 @ 6.37% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.05% Total : 22.69% |
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