Friday's encounter has all the makings of a fascinating derby between a Lille side who are hardly ever outfought on their own patch, and a Lens crop with the most away clean sheets in the current Ligue 1 campaign.
The international break has the potential to disrupt both sides' flow, though, and with both managers wary of the ramifications of a defeat, yet another low-scoring stalemate between the two sides may be on the Stade Pierre-Mauroy menu.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 54.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Lens had a probability of 21.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.81%) and 2-0 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.09%), while for a Lens win it was 0-1 (6.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
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