SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 58.16%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Lugano had a probability of 20.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.46%) and 0-1 (8.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.52%), while for a Lugano win it was 2-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lugano | Draw | Fenerbahce |
20.86% ( -5.13) | 20.98% ( -2.93) | 58.16% ( 8.07) |
| Both teams to score 59.99% ( 3.71) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.56% ( 7.84) | 37.44% ( -7.84) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.34% ( 7.96) | 59.66% ( -7.96) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.7% ( -0.05) | 31.3% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.35% ( -0.06) | 67.65% ( 0.06) |
| Fenerbahce Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.32% ( 5.46) | 12.69% ( -5.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.12% ( 10.23) | 38.88% ( -10.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lugano | Draw | Fenerbahce |
| 2-1 @ 5.53% ( -1.02) 1-0 @ 4.61% ( -1.98)2-0 @ 2.68% ( -1.16)3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 2.14% ( -0.4)3-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.45)Other @ 2.65% Total : 20.86% | 1-1 @ 9.52% ( -1.73) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.12)0-0 @ 3.97% ( -1.7)3-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.29)Other @ 0.25% Total : 20.98% | 1-2 @ 9.83% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 8.46% ( 0.21)0-1 @ 8.2% ( -1.48)1-3 @ 6.77% ( 1.3)0-3 @ 5.82% ( 1.13)2-3 @ 3.93% ( 0.75)1-4 @ 3.49% ( 1.16)0-4 @ 3.01% ( 1)2-4 @ 2.03% ( 0.67)1-5 @ 1.44% ( 0.65)0-5 @ 1.24% ( 0.56)Other @ 3.94% Total : 58.16% |
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