MX23RW : Sunday, April 28 13:03:54
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Sunday, April 28
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M
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 33
Apr 30, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Velodrome
AA

Marseille
2 - 1
Auxerre

Under (75'), Sanchez (77')
Sanchez (41')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Toure (33')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Lyon 1-2 Marseille
Sunday, April 23 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Auxerre 1-1 Lille
Saturday, April 22 at 4pm in Ligue 1

We said: Marseille 2-1 Auxerre

Marseille's form at the Velodrome has not been great, but a win here last time out plus success at Lyon last week may give the side an additional boost. Auxerre will not make it easy for OM, though, and should cause the home side more than a few problems in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 63.97%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Auxerre had a probability of 15.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.54%), while for an Auxerre win it was 0-1 (4.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Marseille in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Marseille.

Result
MarseilleDrawAuxerre
63.97% (0.832 0.83) 20.2% (-0.292 -0.29) 15.83% (-0.54 -0.54)
Both teams to score 52.81% (-0.236 -0.24)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.76% (0.296 0.3)42.24% (-0.297 -0.3)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.35% (0.297 0.3)64.64% (-0.297 -0.3)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.48% (0.32799999999999 0.33)12.52% (-0.328 -0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.47% (0.679 0.68)38.53% (-0.679 -0.68)
Auxerre Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.36% (-0.498 -0.5)39.63% (0.498 0.5)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.68% (-0.465 -0.47)76.32% (0.46599999999999 0.47)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 63.96%
    Auxerre 15.83%
    Draw 20.2%
MarseilleDrawAuxerre
2-0 @ 10.71% (0.13 0.13)
1-0 @ 10.3% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.91% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
3-0 @ 7.42% (0.179 0.18)
3-1 @ 6.87% (0.074 0.07)
4-0 @ 3.86% (0.14 0.14)
4-1 @ 3.57% (0.083 0.08)
3-2 @ 3.18% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.65% (0.016 0.02)
5-0 @ 1.6% (0.077 0.08)
5-1 @ 1.48% (0.052 0.05)
Other @ 3.41%
Total : 63.96%
1-1 @ 9.54% (-0.137 -0.14)
0-0 @ 4.96% (-0.066 -0.07)
2-2 @ 4.59% (-0.071000000000001 -0.07)
3-3 @ 0.98% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 20.2%
0-1 @ 4.59% (-0.125 -0.13)
1-2 @ 4.42% (-0.125 -0.13)
0-2 @ 2.13% (-0.087 -0.09)
2-3 @ 1.42% (-0.042 -0.04)
1-3 @ 1.36% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 15.83%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Lyon 1-2 Marseille
Sunday, April 23 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 3-1 Troyes
Sunday, April 16 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lorient 0-0 Marseille
Sunday, April 9 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 1-1 Montpellier
Friday, March 31 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Reims 1-2 Marseille
Sunday, March 19 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-2 Strasbourg
Sunday, March 12 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Auxerre 1-1 Lille
Saturday, April 22 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Auxerre 2-1 Nantes
Sunday, April 16 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Ajaccio 0-3 Auxerre
Sunday, April 9 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Auxerre 1-0 Troyes
Saturday, April 1 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Strasbourg 2-0 Auxerre
Sunday, March 19 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Auxerre 0-0 Rennes
Saturday, March 11 at 4pm in Ligue 1


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