Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 48.1%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 27.54% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 0-1 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
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