Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Accrington Stanley win with a probability of 37.55%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 36.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.1%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 0-1 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.
0.48) 
-0.55) 
