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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 73.49%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Smorgon had a probability of 9.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.22%) and 3-0 (10.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Smorgon win it was 0-1 (3.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Neman | Draw | Smorgon |
73.49% ( -0.11) | 17.45% ( 0.07) | 9.07% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 40.94% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.18% ( -0.18) | 46.82% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.92% ( -0.17) | 69.08% ( 0.17) |
| Neman Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.77% ( -0.08) | 11.23% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.22% ( -0.17) | 35.78% ( 0.17) |
| Smorgon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.11% ( -0.02) | 53.89% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.79% ( -0.02) | 87.21% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Neman | Draw | Smorgon |
| 2-0 @ 14.46% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 13.22% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 10.54% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 8.94% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.52% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 3.57% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 2.52% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.34% Total : 73.47% | 1-1 @ 8.18% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.05% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 2.77% ( -0)Other @ 0.45% Total : 17.45% | 0-1 @ 3.74% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.64% Total : 9.07% |
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