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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 61.82%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Smorgon had a probability of 16.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.45%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.35%), while for a Smorgon win it was 0-1 (5.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Neman | Draw | Smorgon |
61.82% ( 0.17) | 21.78% ( -0.08) | 16.4% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 48.9% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.91% ( 0.19) | 48.09% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.75% ( 0.18) | 70.25% ( -0.17) |
| Neman Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.97% ( 0.12) | 15.02% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.5% ( 0.22) | 43.5% ( -0.22) |
| Smorgon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.54% ( 0.01) | 42.45% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.17% ( 0.01) | 78.83% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Neman | Draw | Smorgon |
| 1-0 @ 12.09% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 11.45% 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0)3-0 @ 7.24% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.2% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.94% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.31% Total : 61.81% | 1-1 @ 10.35% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.21% ( 0)Other @ 0.84% Total : 21.77% | 0-1 @ 5.46% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.27% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.2% ( 0)Other @ 1.69% Total : 16.4% |
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