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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 68.6%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Smorgon had a probability of 12.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.68%) and 1-2 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.05%), while for a Smorgon win it was 1-0 (4.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Smorgon | Draw | Neman |
12.38% ( -0.14) | 19.02% ( 0) | 68.6% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 47.47% ( -0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.44% ( -0.34) | 44.56% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.08% ( -0.33) | 66.93% ( 0.33) |
| Smorgon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.89% ( -0.45) | 46.11% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.19% ( -0.35) | 81.81% ( 0.35) |
| Neman Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.09% ( -0.06) | 11.91% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.74% ( -0.13) | 37.26% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Smorgon | Draw | Neman |
| 1-0 @ 4.25% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 3.5% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 1.65% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 0.9% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.11% Total : 12.38% | 1-1 @ 9.05% 0-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.76% Total : 19.02% | 0-2 @ 12.43% ( 0.13) 0-1 @ 11.68% ( 0.14)1-2 @ 9.62% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 8.82% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 6.83% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 4.69% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 3.63% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 2% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1.55% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.31% Total : 68.59% |
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