SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 40.84%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 33.08% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (7.04%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Oxford United | Draw | Cardiff City |
33.08% ( -0.39) | 26.08% ( -0.09) | 40.84% ( 0.48) |
| Both teams to score 53.43% ( 0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.04% ( 0.3) | 50.95% ( -0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.17% ( 0.26) | 72.82% ( -0.26) |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.9% ( -0.11) | 29.1% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.97% ( -0.13) | 65.02% ( 0.13) |
| Cardiff City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.37% ( 0.39) | 24.63% ( -0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.85% ( 0.54) | 59.14% ( -0.54) |
| Score Analysis |
| Oxford United | Draw | Cardiff City |
| 1-0 @ 8.85% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 7.65% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 5.46% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 3.15% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.25% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0)4-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.55% Total : 33.08% | 1-1 @ 12.39% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7.17% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 5.36% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.07% | 0-1 @ 10.04% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.69% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 7.04% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 4.06% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 3.29% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.42% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.66% Total : 40.84% |
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