Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salernitana win with a probability of 47.48%. A win for Carrarese had a probability of 26.54% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salernitana win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Carrarese win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Salernitana would win this match.
1.41) 
-0.04) 
