Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 55.82%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Cittadella had a probability of 18.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Cittadella win it was 0-1 (7.63%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.
0.16) 
-0.06) 
