Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cittadella win with a probability of 44.3%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 28% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cittadella win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.64%) and 2-1 (8.6%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cittadella would win this match.
0.09) 
-0) 
