Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 52.34%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Modena had a probability of 21.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.56%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a Modena win it was 0-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Spezia in this match.
0.14) 
-0.15) 
