Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 46.96%. A win for Modena had a probability of 27.16% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Modena win was 0-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
0.01) 
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