Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 55.94%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Carrarese had a probability of 19.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.33%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.63%), while for a Carrarese win it was 0-1 (7.23%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.22) 
