Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 40.72%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 31.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (10.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.
0.09) 
-0.14) 
