SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 44.5%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 33.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.86%) and 2-0 (5.47%). The likeliest Notts County win was 1-2 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Swindon Town in this match.
| Result | ||
| Swindon Town | Draw | Notts County |
44.5% ( 0.11) | 22.22% ( -0.03) | 33.28% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 67.37% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.19% ( 0.15) | 32.81% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.49% ( 0.17) | 54.51% ( -0.17) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.54% ( 0.1) | 15.46% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.68% ( 0.18) | 44.33% ( -0.18) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.69% ( 0.03) | 20.31% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.32% ( 0.05) | 52.68% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Swindon Town | Draw | Notts County |
| 2-1 @ 8.72% ( -0) 1-0 @ 5.86% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 5.47% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.43% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.53% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.02% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.01)4-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.12% Total : 44.5% | 1-1 @ 9.35% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.95% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.14% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 2.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.48% Total : 22.22% | 1-2 @ 7.45% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 3.99% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.96% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.69% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.58% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.47% ( 0)3-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.1% Total : 33.28% |
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