SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 47.77%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 30.56% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.87%) and 1-0 (5.75%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-2 (6.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Notts County | Draw | Swindon Town |
47.77% ( -0.27) | 21.67% ( -0.04) | 30.56% ( 0.31) |
| Both teams to score 68.07% ( 0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.66% ( 0.39) | 31.34% ( -0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.21% ( 0.46) | 52.79% ( -0.46) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.23% ( 0.06) | 13.77% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.92% ( 0.11) | 41.08% ( -0.11) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.94% ( 0.37) | 21.06% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.14% ( 0.57) | 53.86% ( -0.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Notts County | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 5.75% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 5.7% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 4.57% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.77% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 2.91% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.87% ( -0.02)4-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.15% Other @ 3.87% Total : 47.77% | 1-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 6.92% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 2.9% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.52% Total : 21.67% | 1-2 @ 6.98% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.62% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 3.59% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 3.52% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.4% ( 0.04)3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.77% Total : 30.56% |
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