Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 51.2%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Uniao Santarem had a probability of 24.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.61%) and 0-2 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.6%), while for a Uniao Santarem win it was 1-0 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
0.02) 
-0.02) 
