Despite Casa Pia's marginal success over struggling Estrela before the international break, Moreirense are backed to return to winning ways this weekend, keen to bounce back from dropping points to superior opposition before the pause and exploit Casapianos' soft underbelly. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 32.91% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.76%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 0-1 (11.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.

Result
Casa Pia	Draw	Moreirense
38.16% ( 0.02)	28.92% ( 0.01)	32.91% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 44.85% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.25% (

-0.04)

61.75% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.45% (

-0.03)

81.55% (

0.03)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.72% (

-0.01)

31.28% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.36% (

-0.01)

67.63% (

0.01)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.26% (

-0.04)

34.74% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.53% (

-0.05)

71.46% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Casa Pia 38.16%

Moreirense 32.9%

Draw 28.92%

Casa Pia	Draw	Moreirense
1-0 @ 12.62% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.76% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.01% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.84% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.59% ( -0) Other @ 3% Total : 38.16%	1-1 @ 13.35% 0-0 @ 10.86% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.92%	0-1 @ 11.48% 1-2 @ 7.06% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.08% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.49% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.14% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.45% ( -0) Other @ 2.21% Total : 32.9%