Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 57.87%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 19.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.71%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.
-0.16) 
0.03) 
