Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 52.45%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 22.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.23%) and 1-2 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12%), while for a Vitoria win it was 1-0 (7.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
-2.58) 
3.77) 
