SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 57.87%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 19.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.71%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vasco da Gama | Draw | Vitoria |
57.87% ( -0.16) | 23.09% ( 0.03) | 19.03% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 49.86% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.59% ( 0.07) | 49.41% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.55% ( 0.06) | 71.45% ( -0.06) |
| Vasco da Gama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.2% ( -0.03) | 16.8% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.23% ( -0.06) | 46.77% ( 0.05) |
| Vitoria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.92% ( 0.19) | 40.07% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.28% ( 0.17) | 76.72% ( -0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vasco da Gama | Draw | Vitoria |
| 1-0 @ 12% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 10.71% ( -0.05)2-1 @ 9.8% ( 0)3-0 @ 6.37% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 5.82% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.84% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.6% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.19% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 1.94% Total : 57.86% | 1-1 @ 10.98% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.73% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.9% Total : 23.09% | 0-1 @ 6.16% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.02% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.14% Total : 19.03% |
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