SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 54.07%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 23.82% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.3%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 1-2 (6.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Watford in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Watford.
| Result | ||
| Watford | Draw | Chesterfield |
54.07% ( 0.06) | 22.1% ( 0.01) | 23.82% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 60.14% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.9% ( -0.15) | 39.1% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.57% ( -0.16) | 61.42% ( 0.15) |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.51% ( -0.04) | 14.49% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.52% ( -0.06) | 42.47% ( 0.06) |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.33% ( -0.14) | 29.66% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.29% ( -0.17) | 65.7% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Watford | Draw | Chesterfield |
| 2-1 @ 9.75% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.3% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 6.28% ( -0)3-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.03% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.84% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.17% ( -0)5-0 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 3.25% Total : 54.07% | 1-1 @ 10.08% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.09% | 1-2 @ 6.13% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.22% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.17% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.13% Total : 23.82% |
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