While this is something of a free hit for Chesterfield, they will also want to do themselves justice. Nevertheless, facing Watford on away territory is a big step up, and we anticipate that the Hornets will come through with a comfortable win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 54.07%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 23.82% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.3%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 1-2 (6.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Watford in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Watford.
0.06) 
-0.07) 
