Defeating a quality side like Club America is a big achievement for a relatively new Liga MX club like Juarez, but we expect them to have a let-down against an experienced team in Tigres, who rarely have consecutive poor performances in this competition.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigres win with a probability of 39.37%. A win for Juarez had a probability of 32.44% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigres win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.09%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Juarez win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
0.13) 
-0.53) 
