SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 44.36%. A win for Tigres had a probability of 30.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Tigres win was 0-1 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toluca | Draw | Tigres |
44.36% ( -1.4) | 25.15% ( 0.04) | 30.48% ( 1.36) |
| Both teams to score 55.41% ( 0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.08% ( 0.47) | 47.92% ( -0.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.9% ( 0.44) | 70.1% ( -0.44) |
| Toluca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.4% ( -0.44) | 21.6% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.29% ( -0.67) | 54.71% ( 0.67) |
| Tigres Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.68% ( 1.19) | 29.32% ( -1.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.71% ( 1.44) | 65.29% ( -1.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toluca | Draw | Tigres |
| 1-0 @ 9.7% ( -0.32) 2-1 @ 9.12% ( -0.12)2-0 @ 7.44% ( -0.35)3-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.23)3-2 @ 2.86% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.46% ( -0.11)4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.45% Total : 44.36% | 1-1 @ 11.9% 0-0 @ 6.33% ( -0.13)2-2 @ 5.6% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.15% | 0-1 @ 7.77% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 7.31% ( 0.24)0-2 @ 4.77% ( 0.22)1-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.19)2-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.15)1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.49% Total : 30.48% |
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