Lille were humbled by the league leaders last weekend, and we believe that result could serve as motivation to get their act together, and when you combine that with the fact that three of their next four competitive fixtures will be away from home, where they have lost only once in their previous five domestic encounters, all signs point to a victory for this team.
Montpellier are rarely shut out, but they have failed to maintain their composure at critical times, and that could hurt them as they try to contain one of the most dangerous attackers in Ligue 1 (Jonathan David).
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 37.83%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 36.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Lille in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Lille.
