Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 39.18%. A win for Montreal Impact had a probability of 34.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.53%) and 0-2 (6.56%). The likeliest Montreal Impact win was 1-0 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.