Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 47.19%. A win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 28.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Portland Timbers win was 0-1 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.