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Major League Soccer | Gameweek 3
Apr 25, 2021 at 3.30am UK
Jeld-Wen Field
HD

Portland
2 - 1
Houston

Asprilla (6'), Paredes (73')
Asprilla (26'), Bravo (39')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Paredes (28' og.)
Valentin (36'), Urruti (37')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 55.76%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 22.39% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.61%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 1-2 (5.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Portland Timbers in this match.

Result
Portland TimbersDrawHouston Dynamo
55.76%21.86%22.39%
Both teams to score 59.13%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.4%39.6%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.05%61.95%
Portland Timbers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.88%14.12%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.24%41.76%
Houston Dynamo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.85%31.15%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.52%67.48%
Score Analysis
    Portland Timbers 55.76%
    Houston Dynamo 22.39%
    Draw 21.85%
Portland TimbersDrawHouston Dynamo
2-1 @ 9.83%
1-0 @ 8.61%
2-0 @ 8.43%
3-1 @ 6.42%
3-0 @ 5.5%
3-2 @ 3.74%
4-1 @ 3.14%
4-0 @ 2.69%
4-2 @ 1.83%
5-1 @ 1.23%
5-0 @ 1.05%
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 55.76%
1-1 @ 10.04%
2-2 @ 5.73%
0-0 @ 4.4%
3-3 @ 1.45%
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 21.85%
1-2 @ 5.86%
0-1 @ 5.13%
0-2 @ 2.99%
1-3 @ 2.28%
2-3 @ 2.23%
0-3 @ 1.16%
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 22.39%

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