Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 45.36%. A win for Needham Market had a probability of 27.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.8%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest Needham Market win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.02) 
