SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 40.49%. A win for Needham Market had a probability of 33.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (7.02%). The likeliest Needham Market win was 1-0 (9.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alfreton Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Needham Market | Draw | Alfreton Town |
33.28% ( -0.14) | 26.22% ( -0.02) | 40.49% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 53.01% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.48% ( 0.07) | 51.52% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.68% ( 0.06) | 73.32% ( -0.06) |
| Needham Market Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.75% ( -0.05) | 29.25% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.79% ( -0.07) | 65.2% ( 0.06) |
| Alfreton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.93% ( 0.12) | 25.07% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.25% ( 0.16) | 59.75% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Needham Market | Draw | Alfreton Town |
| 1-0 @ 9.01% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 7.67% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 5.54% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.14% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.27% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.17% ( -0)4-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.52% Total : 33.28% | 1-1 @ 12.47% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.33% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.3% ( 0)3-3 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.22% | 0-1 @ 10.14% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.63% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 3.98% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.24% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.38% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.54% Total : 40.49% |
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