Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 37.31%. A win for Guiseley had a probability of 36.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.42%). The likeliest Guiseley win was 1-0 (9.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.