Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 43.14%. A win for Wrexham had a probability of 31.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Wrexham win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
