SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Wrexham | 44 | 46 | 88 |
| 3 | Solihull Moors | 44 | 38 | 87 |
| 4 | Halifax Town | 44 | 27 | 84 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Grimsby Town | 44 | 22 | 77 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 44 | 18 | 74 |
| 8 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 44 | 27 | 73 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Solihull Moors win with a probability of 46.42%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 28.4% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Solihull Moors win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Solihull Moors would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Solihull Moors | Draw | Chesterfield |
46.42% ( 0.29) | 25.18% ( 0.1) | 28.4% ( -0.39) |
| Both teams to score 54.09% ( -0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.92% ( -0.63) | 49.08% ( 0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.84% ( -0.57) | 71.15% ( 0.57) |
| Solihull Moors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.83% ( -0.13) | 21.16% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.97% ( -0.21) | 54.03% ( 0.21) |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.61% ( -0.61) | 31.39% ( 0.61) |
