Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 80.18%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Dover Athletic had a probability of 7.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (8.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.92%), while for a Dover Athletic win it was 1-2 (2.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
