Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 52.58%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Sweden had a probability of 22.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.64%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.67%), while for a Sweden win it was 0-1 (7.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.
