Italy
1 - 1
Netherlands

Pellegrini (16')
Verratti (23'), D'Ambrosio (80'), Kean (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-1)

van de Beek (25')

Preview

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's UEFA Nations League clash between Italy and the Netherlands, including team news and predicted lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 45.16%. A win for Netherlands had a probability of 31.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Netherlands win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.

Result
Italy	Draw	Netherlands
45.16%	23.81%	31.02%

Both teams to score 60.33%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.4%

41.6%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36%

64%

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.33%

18.67%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50%

Netherlands Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.17%

25.82%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.21%

60.79%

Score Analysis

Italy 45.16%

Netherlands 31.02%

Draw 23.81%

Italy	Draw	Netherlands
2-1 @ 9.19% 1-0 @ 8.09% 2-0 @ 6.79% 3-1 @ 5.14% 3-0 @ 3.8% 3-2 @ 3.48% 4-1 @ 2.16% 4-0 @ 1.59% 4-2 @ 1.46% Other @ 3.46% Total : 45.16%	1-1 @ 10.95% 2-2 @ 6.22% 0-0 @ 4.82% 3-3 @ 1.57% Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.81%	1-2 @ 7.42% 0-1 @ 6.53% 0-2 @ 4.42% 1-3 @ 3.35% 2-3 @ 2.81% 0-3 @ 1.99% 1-4 @ 1.13% 2-4 @ 0.95% Other @ 2.43% Total : 31.02%