SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Turkey | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Georgia | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Germany | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Hungary | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Scotland | 3 | -5 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 77.45%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Scotland had a probability of 8.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.9%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.51%), while for a Scotland win it was 1-2 (2.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portugal | Draw | Scotland |
77.45% ( -0.56) | 14.01% ( 0.25) | 8.54% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 51.42% ( 0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.01% ( -0.13) | 31.98% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.45% ( -0.15) | 53.55% ( 0.15) |
| Portugal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.3% ( -0.14) | 6.69% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 75.21% ( -0.36) | 24.79% ( 0.36) |
| Scotland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.11% ( 0.59) | 44.88% ( -0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.16% ( 0.47) | 80.84% ( -0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portugal | Draw | Scotland |
| 2-0 @ 10.98% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 9.9% ( -0.15)2-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.08)1-0 @ 8.12% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.15)4-1 @ 5.36% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.06)6-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.03)5-2 @ 1.16% ( 0)Other @ 3.71% Total : 77.44% | 1-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.09)0-0 @ 3% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.97% Total : 14.01% | 1-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 2.41% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.62% Total : 8.54% |
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