SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Turkey | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Portugal | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Czech Republic | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | Georgia | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Turkey | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Portugal | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Czech Republic | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | Georgia | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 56.04%. A win for Turkey had a probability of 22.62% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.96%) and 0-1 (7.84%). The likeliest Turkey win was 2-1 (5.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Turkey | Draw | Portugal |
22.62% ( -0.3) | 21.34% ( -0.12) | 56.04% ( 0.43) |
| Both teams to score 61.32% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.13% ( 0.22) | 36.87% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.95% ( 0.23) | 59.05% ( -0.23) |
| Turkey Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.58% ( -0.13) | 29.42% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.59% ( -0.16) | 65.41% ( 0.17) |
| Portugal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.88% ( 0.2) | 13.12% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.23% ( 0.4) | 39.78% ( -0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Turkey | Draw | Portugal |
| 2-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 4.72% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 2.89% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.13% Total : 22.62% | 1-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.86% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.65% ( 0)Other @ 0.28% Total : 21.34% | 1-2 @ 9.74% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.96% ( 0.04)0-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 6.59% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 5.39% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 4.03% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 3.35% ( 0.05)0-4 @ 2.74% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 2.05% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 1.36% ( 0.03)0-5 @ 1.11% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.88% Total : 56.04% |
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