SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 8 | 26 | 22 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Greece | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 8 | -41 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 42.72%. A win for Republic of Ireland had a probability of 30.26% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Republic of Ireland win was 1-0 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that England would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Republic of Ireland | Draw | England |
30.26% ( 0.15) | 27.01% ( 0.08) | 42.72% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 49.47% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.44% ( -0.24) | 55.55% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.27% ( -0.19) | 76.73% ( 0.19) |
| Republic of Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.62% ( -0.01) | 33.38% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.99% ( -0.02) | 70.01% ( 0.02) |
| England Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.26% ( -0.22) | 25.74% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.33% ( -0.31) | 60.67% ( 0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Republic of Ireland | Draw | England |
| 1-0 @ 9.43% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 7.02% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.17% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 2.57% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.89% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.45% Total : 30.26% | 1-1 @ 12.79% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.59% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 4.76% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.87% Total : 27.01% | 0-1 @ 11.66% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 8.68% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 7.91% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.93% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 3.58% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.22% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.26% Total : 42.72% |
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