SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Czech Republic | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Portugal | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 8 | 26 | 22 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Greece | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 8 | -41 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 73.81%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Republic of Ireland had a probability of 10.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 3-0 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.04%), while for a Republic of Ireland win it was 1-2 (3.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portugal | Draw | Republic of Ireland |
73.81% ( -0.56) | 15.44% ( 0.31) | 10.75% ( 0.25) |
| Both teams to score 55.22% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.19% ( -0.8) | 31.81% ( 0.8) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.66% ( -0.94) | 53.34% ( 0.95) |
| Portugal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.64% ( -0.29) | 7.37% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.42% ( -0.78) | 26.58% ( 0.78) |
| Republic of Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.61% ( -0.13) | 40.39% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.99% ( -0.11) | 77.01% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portugal | Draw | Republic of Ireland |
| 2-0 @ 10.11% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 8.8% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 7.98% ( -0.05)1-0 @ 7.76% ( 0.22)4-0 @ 5.74% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 5.2% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 2.99% ( -0.1)5-1 @ 2.71% ( -0.1)4-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.06)6-0 @ 1.3% ( -0.07)5-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.05)6-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.65% Total : 73.8% | 1-1 @ 7.04% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 4.16% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.13)3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 15.44% | 1-2 @ 3.19% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 2.7% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 1.26% ( 0)0-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.42% Total : 10.75% |
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