SM
| Current League A4 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Denmark | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Serbia | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Switzerland | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 58.45%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Serbia had a probability of 18.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.37%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.1%), while for a Serbia win it was 0-1 (6.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spain | Draw | Serbia |
58.45% ( 0.16) | 23.48% ( -0.01) | 18.07% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 47.08% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.75% ( -0.18) | 52.25% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.05% ( -0.16) | 73.95% ( 0.15) |
| Spain Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.38% ( -0.01) | 17.62% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.79% ( -0.02) | 48.21% ( 0.01) |
| Serbia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.15% ( -0.29) | 42.84% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.84% ( -0.24) | 79.16% ( 0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spain | Draw | Serbia |
| 1-0 @ 13.1% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 11.37% ( 0.07)2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.58% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.86% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.42% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.49% Total : 58.44% | 1-1 @ 11.1% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.09% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.73% Total : 23.47% | 0-1 @ 6.4% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.71% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.77% Total : 18.07% |
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