SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 51.8%. A win for Porto had a probability of 25.27% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-2 (6.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Porto |
51.8% ( -3.19) | 22.92% ( 0.94) | 25.27% ( 2.24) |
| Both teams to score 58.91% ( -0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.52% ( -2.04) | 41.47% ( 2.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.13% ( -2.1) | 63.87% ( 2.09) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.9% ( -1.79) | 16.09% ( 1.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.51% ( -3.37) | 45.49% ( 3.36) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.21% ( 0.72) | 29.79% ( -0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.14% ( 0.86) | 65.86% ( -0.87) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Porto |
| 2-1 @ 9.69% ( -0.11) 1-0 @ 8.76% ( 0.27)2-0 @ 8% ( -0.25)3-1 @ 5.9% ( -0.45)3-0 @ 4.87% ( -0.48)3-2 @ 3.57% ( -0.2)4-1 @ 2.69% ( -0.39)4-0 @ 2.22% ( -0.38)4-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.2)5-1 @ 0.98% ( -0.22)Other @ 3.49% Total : 51.8% | 1-1 @ 10.6% ( 0.53) 2-2 @ 5.87% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 4.79% ( 0.43)3-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.92% | 1-2 @ 6.42% ( 0.44) 0-1 @ 5.81% ( 0.62)0-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.44)1-3 @ 2.59% ( 0.23)2-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.2)Other @ 3.15% Total : 25.27% |
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