Sunday's showdown is destined to be a lively encounter between two fierce rivals, so we expect Sporting and Benfica to serve up an entertaining draw at Estadio Jose Alvalade.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 44.64%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 30.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.
-0.37) 
0.24) 
