Porto have won the last three competitive meetings between the two sides, but with Benfica still yet to lose this season, we think that the hosts will have to settle for a point against their rivals.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 40.98%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 33.84% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Benfica win was 0-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
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