Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United Under-21s win with a probability of 51.58%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 25.72% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.32%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United Under-21s would win this match.

Result
Newcastle United Under-21s	Draw	Derby County Under-21s
51.58% ( -0.42)	22.7% ( 0.15)	25.72% ( 0.27)

Both teams to score 60.18% (

-0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.98% (

-0.46)

40.01% (

0.46)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.62% (

-0.48)

62.38% (

0.48)

Newcastle United Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.35% (

-0.31)

15.65% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.33% (

-0.58)

44.67% (

0.58)

Derby County Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.34% (

-0.04)

28.66% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.52% (

-0.05)

64.48% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Newcastle United Under-21s 51.58%

Derby County Under-21s 25.72%

Draw 22.7%

Newcastle United Under-21s	Draw	Derby County Under-21s
2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.32% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 7.72% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.96% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 4.77% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 2.77% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 2.21% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.72% Total : 51.58%	1-1 @ 10.39% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.48% ( 0.1) 3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.7%	1-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 5.6% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.71% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.45% Total : 25.72%