We said: Bournemouth 1-2 Aston Villa
Beaten just three times in 23 home games last season, albeit at Championship level, Bournemouth will be no pushovers at their own headquarters - but there is a gulf in quality between these two squads.
Since returning to the top-flight themselves three years ago, Villa have built a setup worthy of the top half, and can use their superior firepower to take three points back to Birmingham.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 47.63%. A win for Bournemouth had a probability of 27.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.41%) and 0-2 (8.08%). The likeliest Bournemouth win was 1-0 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.